Near Term - Gann Target of SPX 1306?
SPX has springboard momentum off the Nov 25 low and should push to 1306 in 2-3 weeks. Two key dates I am watching are Dec 22 and Dec 28 for a high.
Dec 22, 2011 is a Gann 90 from 9-22 low and a Gann 120 from the 8-22 low. Dec 28, 2011 is a Gann 240 from the April/May 2011 highs. These two dates will be key harmonics to watch as the 90, 120 and 240 are foundations of the Gann Emblem.
For more information on what I mean by a 90 or 120 read this Gann PDF article.
Dec 22, 2011 is a Gann 90 from 9-22 low and a Gann 120 from the 8-22 low. Dec 28, 2011 is a Gann 240 from the April/May 2011 highs. These two dates will be key harmonics to watch as the 90, 120 and 240 are foundations of the Gann Emblem.
For more information on what I mean by a 90 or 120 read this Gann PDF article.
posted by chartblog at
2:57 PM
4 Comments:
Dave,
I enjoy your blog. I fear that your comparison with secular bull market cycles are not valid. Comparing the current market to the 90s is like comparing apples and oranges. I believe a more valid comparison would be to the last 6 years of the prior secular bear market of the late 60s to early 80s. You will see in that segment of time that the 78% retracement level of the peak served as a strong ceiling. Converting that to today's market would be in the 1380 to 1420 range. I am OK with being wrong on this since I am long the market just not fully exposed. We will struggle with fundementals until the commodities bull market ends which will likely be around 2015. Keep up the great work !
Thanks for your input and comments....
I dont see conditions exactly the same as 1994-2000 just the speed of returns.
You mentioned the early 80's which Im looking at as part of the 30 year cycle. Looking back every 30 years the markets have an economic "party" or boom....
1860's (war boom), 1890's (gay nineties), 1920's (roaring 20's), 1950's (most prosperous US decade) 1980's (go-go 80's) and now the 2010's are about to have the next party/boom.
30 year correlation to the 2000 decade would indeed be the 1970's and 1940's as they were flat inflationary war periods.
The 30 year cycle should be saying now we are about to enter another 1982 where a major low occurred with a big high in 1984. 2014 should see a big high as well.
My targets for the Dow are 18,000-20,000 into 2014 based on both the 20 and 30 year cycles and are being confirmed by the parallels. But we need to get past the 2012 lows first.
Regards,
-Dave
OK Dave I see now how you get your calculations. I have been using 16 to 18 years for the secular cycles.
Early 1930 - 1948 bear
1948 - 1966 bull
1966 - 1982 bear
1982 - 2000 bull
2000 - 2016 - bear
Fundementally we need the commodities markets to crash as this will the primary catalyst for corporate earnings to explode. Oil being the primary issue. We don't give enough credit to the devistation this caused back in 2008. Yes 10% are unemployed, 25% are upside down on their mortgages, but oil prices impact 100% of us. As a side note, many think that Iraq and Arab Spring is about liberating countries the reality is that we are protecting our oil interests and the global reserve currency status of the US dollar. Iran is likely next. OK enough about the conspiracy theories. If I would like to share some charts with you, how would I ho about doing this ? My name is Dave as well.
16-18 years yes. (or the 17 year locust cicada earthquake cycle etc)
2016 does look devasating indeed....but from what I can tell higher levels? SPX 2250? down to 1000?
Would like for everyone to share charts and see them.
I'll start open discussion threads. :-]
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home