Wave G Distorted But On Track - Seasonal ABC Distortion Similar to 1998 - No Bears in AAII
The math and cycles are saying wave F of the diametric ended December 23 +/- and wave G should unfold into January 24 as a three wave ABC affair.
What looks like it happening is that the SPX is in a seasonally distorted ABC pattern similar to what happened in the summer of 1998 where wave B rode high from the strong seasonals. For this ABC it looks wave A of G just bottomed this week lasting 12-13 days, now wave B should run into the January 11-12 square of 9 date. Final wave C should equal wave A of 12-13 days which is on track for January 24.
AAII sentiment says the bears are AWOL, which suggests, not a flash crash, but a mini flash drop may be just ahead from January 11-24 for our C wave.....smaller scale of what happened in 1998. This C wave down into late January should be a fear hole that sets the stage for a HUGE RALLY......completing the "end game."
posted by chartblog at
9:39 AM
4 Comments:
Bullish setup for USH2 into today's data confirmed on the large rally out of the 8.35am hole following the "positive" data surprise - consistent with the SPX rally stalling, and reversing.
Was amove down to the 24th, now suddenly its a move up to the 24th... uh huh...
Never said move up to the 24th, only move up here would be a b-wave fakeout to the 12th.
Odds seem to favor the 1/9 full moon supporting a sideways-to-higher market through 1/11. 1293 seems likely to print by Wed, before any decent correction lower.
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